President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped to record lows in multiple recent polls amid growing voter frustration over the economy and inflation, but political experts told Newsweek that his future popularity—and how history will judge his tenure in the White House—remain unclear.
Trump is the face of the Republican Party and has reshaped it in his brand of politics since he first ran for president 10 years ago in 2016. Many in the GOP have shifted positions on issues from immigration to tariffs to reflect the president’s viewpoint. He remains broadly popular among his conservative base despite plummeting numbers among Democrats and independents and will be a defining figure of the GOP for years to come.
This means that Trump’s popularity is directly tied to the GOP—especially in the upcoming midterms, when Democrats believe his faltering poll numbers could drive a so-called “blue wave” that could push Democrats to victory in key races in both the House of Representatives and Senate.
But Trump’s polling could also be influential to his legacy and the way Americans remember his presidency.
David Stebenne, professor of history and law at Ohio State University, told Newsweek that Trump being “embroiled in an unpopular military conflict” leading to inflation could be key to how his presidency is viewed.
“He has a kind of populist appeal with a lot of white working class voters and the heartland, but they're the kind of people who are very sensitive to increases in the price of gas and groceries,” he said.
Even presidents who were unpopular during their tenure historically see their numbers rebound after they leave office—just look at Harry Truman. Only 32 percent of Americans approved of him in the final Gallup poll in December 1952. But YouGov now ranks him the 12th most popular president in U.S. history, a sign that he’s remembered more fondly despite poor final approval polling.
Others, like Richard Nixon, never quite saw their approval numbers recover. Nixon’s presidency ended in scandal over Watergate. Gallup polling showed his approval at 24 percent before leaving office, and YouGov shows him as the 35th most popular president.
Whether Trump’s approval follows the path of Truman or Nixon could be shaped by factors including the economy and Iran war, experts told Newsweek.
Donald Trump Approval Falls to Record Low
Several major pollsters released surveys this week showing that Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a record low, raising red flags about his standing among independent voters and even parts of his base. A Quinnipiac University poll showed Trump’s approval at 32 percent—its lowest point from either of his terms. It surveyed 963 registered voters from July 23 to July 27.
A CNN poll also found a record low in Trump approval at 34 percent. It surveyed 1,225 respondents, also from July 23 July 27. An AP-NORC poll, which surveyed 1,165 adults on the same days, showed his approval at 33 percent, tied with April for the lowest ever.
Economic concerns are a major point of tension for the administration. Trump campaigned on tackling affordability and inflation, issues emerging in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. But inflation has remained elevated, and voters have shown they are increasingly frustrated over Trump’s approach to the economy. In the Quinnipiac poll, just 34 percent said they approved of Trump on the economy, down from 42 percent in January.
The Iran war is also unpopular with voters, with only 34 percent of respondents in the Quinnipiac poll saying they support the “U.S. military action against Iran,” down from 40 percent in March.
Gas prices have also increased amid the Iran war because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a major passageway for the global oil supply. Costs topping $4 per gallon have caused pain at the pump for consumers and a major polling headache for Trump.
Meena Bose, executive dean of Hofstra University's Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, told Newsweek that the long-term consequences of a president’s leadership and policies are “most significant” in determining their legacy.
“A president’s long-term legacy for leadership and policy making is most important for determining historic favorability. The passage of time and the assessment of the totality of a presidency also can lead to more favorable ratings, or at least split ones in different policy or political areas, but this is no guarantee,” she said.
Could Trump's Approval Rebound Before He Leaves Office?
Presidents often see their approval rating reach its lowest point in their sixth year, Stebenne told Newsweek. That rings true for Trump, even though he has a “discontinuous” two-term tenure, he said.
If 2026 is the worst year of the economy during Trump’s presidency, his approval could tick up in 2027 or 2028, he said.
“If it gets better, and I'm not saying it will, but in the last two years, that is an approval rating that would likely rise,” he said.
Matthew Dallek, professor of political management at The George Washington University, told Newsweek it is “certainly possible” that Trump’s approval could rebound but that “a lot of things would have to fall into place.”
“The Iran war would have to wind down. Prices would have to get more under control and the economy would need to continue to expand,” he said. “The job market, especially, would need to continue to grow. And you in theory have fewer ICE killings of U.S. citizens and immigrants.”
It’s possible Trump’s approval could reenter the low 40s, but Americans are simply “getting tired of him”—Dallek said—so it would still be “tough" to make a significant rebound.
Trump’s Future Approval Could Depend on Next President
Longer term, whether or not Trump’s approval rating rebounds could be tied to his successor, according to Stebenne. If his successor proves unpopular as well, Trump's rating could rise if he is seen as relatively not as poorly by the American public. But a popular successor could make Americans remember his tenure as even worse.
President Dwight Eisenhower is an example of this, Stebenne said, noting that he had “middle range” approval when he left office but is remembered more fondly with a “substantially improved reputation.”
As for Trump, Stebenne said we “don’t quite know yet” whether his approval scores can turn around.
“If he's followed by someone who makes inflation worse, or makes the American military involvement more of a problem, then he could look better relatively speaking. And I mentioned this because that's how he got back into the White House for the second term. In other words, President Biden looked less than commanding when he tried to seek a second term,” he said.
Dallek said that over time, the most controversial actions by a president tend to fade in people’s memories; some recent presidents like George W. Bush and Barack Obama have also left office “pretty young,” and those like Jimmy Carter have been able to seize opportunities to do good work outside the Oval Office.
“Someone like George W. Bush, who was wildly unpopular when he left office, well, relative to Trump, there are a lot of people who very much disliked Bush and his policies, but they believe that Trump is much worse,” he said.
Thomas Whalen, professor of political science at Boston University, told Newsweek certain presidents “cannot escape the debacles they create or fail to respond to.”
“With the Iran war spinning out of control and the economy flashing a check engine warning light, Donald Trump risks joining this rogues gallery of former Commanders in Chief. His increasing authoritarian ways and contempt for traditional civil liberties does not help either,” he said.
Whalen added that while Trump has been able to survive political backlash in the past, he may have “met his match” with his latest missteps.
“Besides, I don’t see him building homes for the poor like Jimmy Carter in his post-presidency that helped erase some of his failures in the White House in the minds of Americans,” he said.
